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Carried Interest in Private Equity: Realized vs Unrealized Carry Guide

Written by Mark Stancato, CFP®, EA, ECA, CRPS® | Dec 2, 2025 3:57:48 PM

Carried interest is an often misunderstood concept in private equity. Most investors know it has something to do with how fund managers get paid, but the mechanics, timing, tax implications, and risk profile are rarely explained clearly. And in an era where more high-net-worth investors are gaining access to institutional-grade opportunities, including co-investments and GP stakes, understanding carried interest is no longer optional.

If you invest in private equity, venture capital, real estate funds, or GP stakes opportunities, carried interest directly affects your returns, your risk, and your tax outcomes. Yet its definitions shift depending on who is using the term: the fund manager, the fund accountant, or the IRS.

This article breaks down carried interest in plain English, explains how it actually works behind the scenes, highlights the difference between realized and unrealized carry, and explains why this distinction matters so much when evaluating GP stakes investments. We will also review how carried interest is taxed, what investors really own when participating in a GP stakes deal, and how to evaluate the quality, durability, and risk of a private equity manager's carry stream.

Whether you are reviewing a co-investment opportunity, a late-stage private deal, or an allocation to a GP stakes vehicle, you should be able to read a fund's materials and understand precisely what you are being told, what you are not being told, and where the real risk lies.

What Exactly Is Carried Interest?

Carried interest, often called "carry," is the profit share that a private equity or venture capital general partner (the GP) earns when a fund's investments perform well. Most funds follow a standard structure:

  • The LPs (investors) contribute capital.
  • The GP invests in portfolio companies.
  • Once a company is sold or exits, profits are distributed.
  • The LPs receive their capital back and a preferred return (often 8 percent).
  • After the hurdle is met, the GP receives a percentage of the remaining profits. This is the carried interest.

In most private equity and venture funds, carry is 20 percent. In top-quartile funds, it can be 25-30%.

Carried interest is not guaranteed. It is entirely dependent on performance. If a fund underperforms, the GP receives no carry at all.

Where Carried Interest Comes From

To understand carried interest, you have to understand the lifecycle of a private equity fund. A typical fund may make 10 to 20 investments over a 3- to 5-year period. Some of those companies will fail. Some may return capital. A few will drive the majority of the returns.

Each time a portfolio company is sold, the fund calculates the distribution waterfall to determine how much of the gain is allocated to LPs and how much to the GP. Over time, these gains accumulate into the GP's total carry pool.

Key structural insight

This is critical: carried interest is not a lump sum. It is the sum of carry allocations across many exits and funds, often spanning 10 to 20 years.

For a large, established firm like H.I.G. Capital or Blackstone, carried interest is produced by dozens of funds and hundreds of exits. The more funds a manager runs, the larger and more diversified the carry stream becomes.

Realized vs Unrealized Carry

This is where sophisticated investors pay close attention and where less experienced investors often get misled, unintentionally or otherwise.

When a private equity firm reports its "carry," it does not always mean cash has been paid out. In fact, carried interest comes in three forms:

1. Realized Carry

This is carry from deals that have fully exited and resulted in actual cash distributions to the GP. Realized carry is the most valuable and least risky category because it reflects profits that have already been earned and distributed.

For example:

  • A company sells.
  • LPs get capital and a preferred return.
  • The GP receives its carry check.
  • This is realized and taxable.

Realized carry is the strongest indicator of a firm's ability to generate and crystallize value.

2. Unrealized Carry (Mature)

These are marked-up portfolio companies that have not yet been sold but are reasonably expected to exit at a gain. They may be under LOI, late in the sale process, or showing strong financials. But until a transaction closes, nothing is guaranteed.

Unrealized mature carry is higher-risk and can vaporize if market conditions shift.

3. Future (Speculative) Carry

This is carry projected from:

  • Funds still in investment mode
  • Earlier-stage portfolio companies
  • Companies marked at cost or modest premiums
  • Funds that have not yet generated exits

Future carry is the most speculative. It is a bet on the GP's ongoing strategy, fundraising ability, and future deal environment.

Investors evaluating GP stakes must understand the composition of the carry stream they are buying into. A GP with a high realized carry percentage is less risky and more predictable. A GP with mostly unrealized carry is more volatile and dependent on market cycles.

"Realized" Does Not Mean Taxed

This is where terminology becomes confusing, and investors can misunderstand:

Common misconception

Realized carry = money in the GP's pocket = taxable income

That is not how private equity reporting works.

In private equity performance materials, "realized" simply means:

  • The underlying investment exited
  • The waterfall was calculated
  • The GP is entitled to carry

But at this stage, carry might:

  • Sit in escrow
  • Be held for clawback protection
  • Be partially deferred
  • Be netted against other losses
  • Be distributed with a delay

The GP's accountants may call this "realized."

But the IRS does not.

When Carried Interest Becomes Taxable

For tax purposes, carried interest becomes taxable when:

  • The GP actually receives a distribution, OR
  • The GP has constructive receipt (money made available without restriction), OR
  • The carry is no longer subject to a substantial risk of forfeiture under Section 83

Most carry is taxed when the cash is distributed, not when the fund internally marks the carry as realized.

And importantly, under Section 1061, the three-year holding period requirement must be met for the carry to be taxed at long-term capital gains rates. If not, it may be taxed as short-term capital gains, which are treated as ordinary income for high earners.

This distinction is essential for GP stakes investors: you are not taxed on "realized carry" until the SPV receives distributions from the GP.

Why Realized vs Unrealized Carry Matters in GP Stakes Investments

When you buy a GP stake, you are not buying portfolio companies. You are buying:

  • A cut of management fees
  • A cut of carried interest
  • A cut of the GP's own balance sheet investments

This is an equity stake in the private equity firm's fee engine.

So what matters is not just how much carry the firm has generated in its lifetime. What matters is the quality, maturity, and durability of its carry stream.

This is exactly why sophisticated institutional buyers like Blue Owl, Dyal Capital, Blackstone GP Stakes, and others scrutinize the carry composition so closely.

Here is how they think about it:

Carry profile Signal Implication Risk
High Realized Carry The GP consistently exits companies for real profits. Cash flow is predictable. Lower.
High Unrealized Mature Carry Promising but uncrystallized pipeline. Likely cash flow, but timing is uncertain. Moderate.
High Future Carry (Speculative) The GP is early in the fund cycle. Heavy reliance on future fundraising and performance. High.

A GP with a high realized carry percentage has proven the business model.

A GP with mostly unrealized carry may look amazing on paper, but is vulnerable to market downturns.

How GP Stakes Investors Actually Get Paid

When you invest in a GP stake, you are buying a share of the GP's economic engine, which typically entitles you to receive:

  • Quarterly or annual distributions representing their share of management fees.
  • Distributions of carried interest when the GP receives carry from fund exits.
  • Distributions from the GP's own balance sheet co-invests.

Management fees are stable and contractually guaranteed.

Carried interest is variable and tied to market conditions, exits, and performance.

Co-invest profits are lumpy but can be significant.

This mix is why GP stakes are attractive: fee revenue provides downside protection, while carry offers upside.

Evaluating a GP Stakes Opportunity: The Carried Interest Checklist

Before allocating to a GP stakes deal, ask these questions:

  • What percentage of the GP's carry is realized vs unrealized?
  • What percentage of unrealized carry is tied to companies under LOI or in late-stage sale processes?
  • How conservative are the valuation marks?
  • Over the last 10 years, what percentage of unrealized marks ultimately materialized?
  • How diversified is the carry stream across fund vintages?
  • How dependent is the GP on future fundraising to maintain distributable earnings?
  • What are the clawback provisions?
  • What is the GP's historical netted carry conversion rate?
  • How long is the lock-up on your investment?
  • How does the GP stakes vehicle handle taxation and distributions?

The more carry that is realized and crystallized, the lower the underwriting risk. The more carry that is unrealized or early-stage, the more you are betting on the future.

Why This Matters to High Net Worth Investors

Access to GP stakes deals used to be limited to pensions, sovereign wealth funds, and the largest endowments. Now, through co-investments and feeder structures, private investors can participate.

But the bar for understanding these deals must be higher.

If you are investing 50K to several million into a GP stakes opportunity, you need to understand the quality of what you're buying. You are not just buying the PE firm's brand. You are buying the economics beneath the brand.

And those economics hinge on the realized vs unrealized carry mix.

Q&A: Your Most Important Questions Answered

+ What is carried interest in private equity?

Carried interest is the GP's share of profits from successful investments after the LPs receive their capital and preferred return.

+ What is realized carry?

Realized carry comes from exited deals where the GP has earned and is entitled to its profit share. This does not always mean the GP has received the cash yet.

+ What is unrealized carry?

Unrealized carry refers to the GP's expected profit share from investments that have not yet exited. These are paper gains, not cash.

+ Is realized carry the same as taxable carry?

No. Realized carry for accounting purposes may not be taxable until cash is distributed or constructively received.

+ When is carried interest taxed?

Carry is typically taxed when it is actually distributed to the GP. It may qualify for long-term capital gains rates if the three-year holding period is met under Section 1061.

+ Why does unrealized carry matter?

Unrealized carry is more sensitive to valuation changes, market cycles, and timing risk. It may never materialize if markets turn.

+ What do GP stakes investors actually own?

A portion of the management fees, carried interest, and co-invest profits of the private equity manager.

+ Why do high-net-worth investors allocate to GP stakes?

Because GP stakes provide stable fee-based cash flows, combined with high upside potential from carried interest.

+ What makes carried interest risky?

Carry depends on future exits, market conditions, valuation marks, and fundraising cycles.

+ How do I evaluate the quality of a GP's carry?

Look at the percentage of realized carry, the maturity of unrealized positions, the firm's exit history, and the durability of its fundraising.

Thinking about allocating to private equity or a GP stakes deal?

Carried interest, waterfalls, and GP economics can quietly reshape your long-term returns and tax bill. If you are considering a commitment to a private equity fund, co-investment, or GP stakes vehicle, it pays to have someone in your corner who has read the fine print before.

We help high-net-worth investors stress-test GP materials, model carry outcomes, and understand exactly what you are buying before you wire a single dollar.